Bitcoin price enters November defending $76,000, the average cost basis of short-term holders. The level was held after the Binance hack pushed BTC to a six-week low of $76,275.

The shock from Binance triggered $1.58 billion in liquidations, and BTC closed October with a 7% loss.

On-Chain Data Puts Bitcoin at a Make-or-Break Level

Glassnode data shows heavy exchange inflows during the late-October slide. Net deposits reached about 11,500 BTC and 8,000 BTC on separate days, signaling sell-side pressure.

Net outflows of roughly 40,000 BTC followed within days, among the largest of 2026. However, these flows do not suggest accumulation.

The stolen 18,270 BTC left a Binance hot wallet during the hack, which registers as an exchange outflow. Users then pulled about $2 billion within three hours after withdrawals reopened on November 1.

Meanwhile, the attacker’s coins remain untouched across 19 addresses. Any move toward exchanges could add fresh supply pressure.

The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio offers a clearer signal. It compares the market price with the average cost basis of recent buyers.

The metric sits near 1.02, meaning short-term holders are about 2% in profit. That places their cost basis close to $76,000, almost exactly at last week’s low.

Historically, drops below 1.0 in 2026 preceded capitulation. Breakdowns in late January and late May led to the February and June lows. In contrast, the August reclaim sparked a rally toward $87,000.

The ratio has also printed lower highs since late September, falling from 1.20 to 1.03. Holding $76,000 keeps recent buyers profitable, while losing it could push them to sell at a loss.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Points to Two November Scenarios

On the weekly chart, BTC is testing the bull market support band. The band combines the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $76,874 and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) at $73,779.

However, the Gaussian channel has stayed red since March, signaling a broader downtrend. BTC was recently rejected at the channel’s declining midline, now near $81,850.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 52, a neutral level that leans slightly lower.

The daily chart adds a bearish warning. The Supertrend indicator flipped red after the hack, for the first time since May.

That May signal preceded a 25% drop to $57,800. A similar decline from the latest flip near $80,000 would target roughly $60,000.

For now, BTC is holding the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $77,876. Daily RSI has slipped to 38, extending a downtrend in momentum.

Resistance sits at $81,000 to $82,000, with a stronger supply zone between $85,000 and $87,000. That upper zone rejected BTC twice in late September and early October.

The November outlook therefore hinges on $76,000. Holding it and reclaiming $82,000 could open a path to $87,000.

Losing it would expose the $73,000 to $74,000 zone. The daily 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 20-week SMA, and the weekly 0.236 Fibonacci level all cluster there.

A breakdown below that zone could extend the slide to the Gaussian channel’s lower band near $71,000. A May-style repeat would put $60,000 in play.

Catalysts could accelerate either move. Bitcoin ETFs saw $643 million in outflows the day after the hack. Meanwhile, the US midterms on November 3 add another layer of uncertainty.

Source: BeInCrypto