Three Things to Know
- Wintermute has built a large book of short bets on Hyperliquid, and HYPE is among its biggest targets.
- HYPE trades under its 50-day average, and momentum gauges still favor sellers.
- The support zone just under $75 now decides whether bears get a wider path lower.
One of the largest traders on Hyperliquid is betting against the exchange's own token. On-chain data shows market maker Wintermute holding a sizable short on HYPE alongside bets against ether, bitcoin and solana.
That positioning lands as HYPE struggles after a rough week, with sellers still in control. Traders want to know whether buyers can hold the nearby floor.
Wintermute Stacks Shorts and Banks $222 Million on Hyperliquid
Market maker Wintermute has booked about $222 million in cumulative profit trading on Hyperliquid, according to on-chain analytics account Onchain Lens. The firm's current positioning leans hard toward falling prices.
Its open positions total roughly $125.87 million. About $115.76 million of that, or 92%, sits in shorts. Ether is the largest bet at around $26.16 million, followed by bitcoin at $19.79 million.
Hyperliquid's own token is third on the list. Wintermute holds a HYPE short worth about $15.23 million, ahead of a $12.72 million position against SOL.
The bearish stance has been paying off. The firm made about $18.83 million in the last 30 days. Its open trades carry roughly $3.46 million in unrealized gains.
Prediction markets agree, if only slightly. Traders on Polymarket put the odds near 54% that HYPE touches $76 in November.
Price Slips Under the 50-Day Average but Keeps Its Long-Term Floor
Hyperliquid (HYPE) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView
HYPE traded near $77.30 on Saturday, flat on the day. The token lost about 12% in a week. That drop left it down roughly 8% for the month.
Price now sits in the lower part of its 30-day range. Sellers appear to be pausing, but nothing shows buyers taking back control.
The 50-day moving average, which tracks the average closing price of the last 50 sessions, shows the clearest damage. HYPE trades below that line, near $82. When price falls under this average, the line often turns from a floor into a ceiling. Rallies tend to stall as traders who bought higher look to exit near breakeven.
The medium-term trend has turned against buyers.
The longer view looks healthier. The 200-day moving average, a slower gauge of the long-term trend, sits far below near $69.60. HYPE remains comfortably above it, so the broader uptrend from earlier in the year is still in place.
This leaves the token caught between two averages. Bears have room to push, though they have not broken the bigger structure yet.
Sellers Still Hold the Momentum Edge
The daily RSI, a 0 to 100 momentum gauge, sits near 41. That reading is weak. Buyers have lost the upper hand, but the token is still well above the 30 mark that signals oversold conditions.
Oversold readings often force a relief bounce as shorts take profits. HYPE is not there yet, so sellers have room to keep pushing.
Other momentum gauges point the same way. The MACD, which compares short and long-term price averages, remains below its signal line. That means momentum is still pointing down, with no sign of a turn.
Trend strength tells a similar story. A trend is forming, and sellers are leading it.
Why $74.45 Is the Line Bulls Must Defend
The nearest support sits around $74.45, just under the level prediction markets are watching. Buyers have defended this zone before. A clean break would show that the weekly selling has more fuel left.
Below that, the map turns thin. The next floor sits near $63.80, which is under the 200-day average. A drop that far would push HYPE through its long-term cushion. That would put the broader uptrend in question for the first time in months.
Overhead, the first resistance stands near $82.60, almost on top of the 50-day average. Reclaiming that area would undercut the bearish case and force shorts to rethink their bets. Even then, a second cap waits near $84.60. Bulls would need to clear both levels to show the selloff has truly ended.
Two Paths From the $76 Retest
- Bullish: Buyers defend the nearby support and push to a daily close above first resistance near the 50-day average. That would open a run toward the second cap overhead. Falling back below support would cancel this view.
- Bearish: A daily close under support would let sellers press toward the next floor below the 200-day average. A move back above first resistance would invalidate this case and squeeze late shorts.
Bears Have the Upper Hand for Now
HYPE leans bearish while it stays under the 50-day average. The support zone just below the prediction-market target is the level that decides the next leg. A firm break there would hand sellers control of the longer trend.
The risk sits on the other side. Large, crowded shorts can unwind quickly, and forced buying could spark a sharp squeeze higher.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Source: Crypto Daily