SUI was trading near $1.18 on October 1 after gaining about 1.44% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk. The token’s market capitalisation was near $4.81 billion and 24-hour volume near $674.6 million, while a separate technical price feed placed SUI/USD between $1.1754 and $1.1796 in early UTC trading.
The immediate test comes on October 3, when roughly 23.38 million SUI tokens are scheduled to unlock. That allocation equals 0.2% of total supply and about 0.6% of market capitalisation, according to Tokenomics.com. Price is holding close to support, but remains below the first nearby resistance, making the market’s response to that supply event central to the short-term SUI price prediction.
Daily momentum readings lean constructive rather than conclusive. For bulls, the issue is whether that momentum can carry SUI through the $1.1858 barrier and then the $1.20-$1.21 area before attention shifts to Sui’s Basecamp event in Singapore next week.
SUI’s daily RSI, MACD and moving averages remain constructive
The daily RSI (14) stood at 67.3 at 02:43 UTC on October 1. Coinotag classified that reading as bullish and in a “strong” zone. It shows buying momentum had the upper hand at the time of observation, although the indicator alone does not settle whether buyers can absorb selling around a scheduled unlock.
MACD also pointed upward. Investing.com showed a daily MACD (12,26) reading of 0.004 at 03:56 GMT and labelled the signal “Buy.” The positive reading aligns with the RSI signal, giving the short-term technical picture a bullish tilt heading into October 3.
Trend positioning offers a second layer of support. CoinMarketCap’s October 1 analysis said SUI was trading above its seven-day moving average near $1.17 and its 30-day moving average near $1.16. Remaining above both averages would preserve that constructive setup; a move back below them would make the bullish readings less persuasive.
The signals therefore describe a market with positive daily momentum, not one that has already confirmed a breakout. Spot was only marginally above the nearest $1.1717 support and below $1.1858 resistance. That narrow range leaves little room for error as the unlock approaches, particularly because a momentum indicator can remain positive while price fails at overhead supply.
SUI support at $1.1717 and resistance from $1.1858 to $1.21
SUI’s nearest levels are tightly clustered around the prevailing spot range. The $1.1717 level is the first daily support identified by Coinotag, which cited confluence from a high-volume node, Fibonacci, pivot-point and MACD-cross measures. Directly beneath it sits the $1.16 area, corresponding to the 30-day moving average in CoinMarketCap’s analysis.
LevelRoleBasis$1.1858Nearest resistanceCoinotag daily resistance$1.20Near-term resistanceCoinMarketCap retest area$1.21Swing-high resistanceRecent high cited by CoinMarketCap$1.2625Higher resistanceCoinotag daily confluence level$1.1717Nearest supportCoinotag daily confluence level$1.16Secondary support30-day moving average$1.10Key lower supportCoinMarketCap near-term outlook$1.0428Further supportCoinotag daily support
On the upside, buyers would first need to establish a break above $1.1858. That would put $1.20 into focus, followed by the $1.21 swing high. CoinMarketCap said a potential retest of $1.21 was in view if support held, while $1.2625 is the next supplied daily resistance beyond that range. None of these levels guarantees that a move will extend; they mark the barriers that must be cleared for the technical structure to improve.
The downside path is clearer at the outset. A loss of $1.1717 would put the $1.16 moving-average level under scrutiny. If price could not hold there, the next listed downside references are $1.10 and then $1.0428. For now, $1.1717 is especially important because it sits immediately beneath the reported spot range and is the first test of whether the latest advance has retained support.
October unlock absorption will determine SUI’s near-term bullish case
The near-term SUI price outlook is cautiously bullish, conditional on the market absorbing the October 3 unlock without surrendering $1.1717. The scheduled release is approximately 23.38 million tokens, or 0.2% of total supply, so it is a defined event rather than an unknown source of supply. Still, the token is trading in a compressed range just below resistance, meaning even a relatively small shift in order flow could decide whether momentum is extended or interrupted.
The technical case rests on a daily RSI of 67.3, a positive MACD reading, and price above the seven-day and 30-day moving averages. If price can sustain a hold above $1.1717 and reclaim $1.1858, the setup would strengthen for a revisit of the supplied $1.20 and $1.21 resistance levels—but only more clearly if the first resistance becomes support rather than a level price briefly trades through.
Conversely, rejection below $1.1858 alongside a break under $1.1717 would weaken the immediate bullish case. In that event, $1.16 becomes the crucial next support, with $1.10 the lower key level cited in CoinMarketCap’s outlook. Such a move would not erase the significance of the broader moving-average structure by itself, but it would show that buyers had not maintained control through the unlock window.
There are also two scheduled developments around the event. 21Shares announced a $0.052939-per-share staking distribution for its Sui Staking ETF, paid September 30 after a September 29 ex/record date, indicating continuing institutional staking-related activity around SUI exposure. Separately, the Sui Foundation has scheduled Basecamp 2026 in Singapore for October 7-8 alongside TOKEN2049. Those events can draw attention, but the chart still places the immediate decision at $1.1717 support and $1.1858 resistance.
For now, bulls have the better daily momentum signals, but not a confirmed breakout. Holding support through the October 3 supply event and clearing $1.1858 would keep the path toward $1.20-$1.21 open. Failure to do so would shift focus back to $1.16, making unlock absorption—not the indicators alone—the decisive short-term test.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Source: Crypto Daily