The World Gold Council (WGC) now expects gold investment demand to grow by about 200 tonnes in 2026. That is half the 400 tonnes it had forecast earlier. In the same report, it raised its outlook for central bank buying.

The two revisions point to a shift in who is driving gold demand. The precious metal traded at $3,937.98 on Wednesday, down 4.9% from a month earlier.

Why Retail Gold Buyers Pulled the 2026 Gold Forecast Down

Bar and coin buyers turned quieter in the second half, and the WGC’s Q3 report factors that into the trim. The council still called their demand relatively resilient.

Global bar and coin demand fell 19% year on year to 268 tonnes in Q3, a four-year low. US demand dropped to 8 tonnes, its weakest quarter since late 2019. Indian demand fell 40% year on year.

The WGC cited a range-bound gold price, expectations of higher-for-longer US rates and rallying equities among the reasons.

Other parts of investment held up better. China’s bar and coin demand reached a record 393 tonnes over the first nine months. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also beat the council’s expectations, drawing a record $31 billion in Q3.

The WGC still expects gold investment demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) trades, to be the main driver of 2026 growth.

“Investment should be supported by robust global gold ETF buying and resilient physical investment. Central banks are likely to remain significant buyers,” the council said.

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Central Banks Pick Up the Slack, Mostly Out of Sight

While retail buyers stepped back, central banks bought more gold than the WGC expected in Q3. They added 321 tonnes, up 42% from a year earlier. That lifted year-to-date purchases to 675 tonnes.

The stronger buying led the council to raise its full-year forecast. It now expects central bank gold buying to at least match 2025.

Reported purchases came to 120 tonnes, so the WGC estimates about 63% of Q3 buying went unreported. China added 63 tonnes and Poland 40 tonnes, the largest disclosed purchases.

Price also shapes official demand. The WGC found a correlation of -0.7 between central bank demand and gold’s quarterly returns since Q3 2022. In other words, weaker returns have tended to bring more buying.

That pattern could offer gold some support, the council said. However, it warned the link is too unstable to set a firm floor for the price.

Gold’s 4.9% drop over the past month puts that pattern to the test in Q4. Fund buyers face a second test from rates, which the WGC sees as a headwind for investment.

The Fed held rates on October 28, but CME FedWatch prices in a 78.4% chance of a December hike.

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Source: BeInCrypto